Setting Odds on the Mariners Prospects

In a recent post on another website, I designed a simple odd system based on some simple statistics that showed correlation between the minors and the Majors. I only looked at first baseman in the post, but I decided it might be a good idea to look at the Mariners’ prospects. The standard was 107 wRC +, so we are talking about the odds of them being legitimate big league hitters. It only “works” for hitters in AA and AAA, so I looked at the Mariners’ hitters that are still in the organization that played some in either AA or AAA (both for some) in 2012. I didn’t include any that have played in the Majors, but I did include Carlos Triunfel, just because his plate appearances in the Majors are minimal.

Since there was somewhat of a flaw in the original scale, I also created “adjusted odds”. For adjusted odds, since the median possibility was 39.08% in the original version of odds, any prospects that were at or above this I multiplied by 25.5 % (since that was the range in odds in the original version) and added the answer to the original odds number (so 39.08 x 25.5 % is ~ 9.96 %, the adjusted odds for the median player would be 49 %). For players under the median in odds, I did the same thing except I subtracted the 25.5%, making the adjusted total lower. I don’t necessarily like this scale more than the original, but it fixes the range, so I included both. Anyway, this is a short post, and if you would like to download the spreadsheet, click here. If not, here is a screenshot, sorted by regular odds:

mariners prospects

The Zunino projection could be even better, as he has had no chance yet to be in the BA’s top 100, and he will most likely be in the one that comes out before the end of the year. Assuming he does, that would change his odds of success to 47% and adjusted odds to 59 %. Of course, with the Zunino projections, we are working with small samples, and him playing in a league that he was obviously too advanced for in Everett, so, like all the other odds, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

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