Velocity and Location Data Part 1: MLB Starters

Clint Hulsey February 20, 2013 0

I’ve always thought that we need to be more specific when we scout pitchers. I am guilty of it as well, as we have seen that just a 1 MPH difference in velocity is a big deal. So when scouting reports say that a pitcher throws 90-93 MPH or 90-95 MPH, this isn’t always all that helpful. Are the 90 MPH pitches in the majority? How often does the pitcher hit 95 MPH? When using Pitch F/X data to evaluate pitchers,“we” almost exclusively look at average velocity.

However, when scouting pitchers, “we” usually use ranges, many times lazy ones and put a lot of focus on what the pitcher maxes out at, or touches. There seems to still be a big disconnect from how we evaluate minor league players and how we evaluate major league players sabermetrically. This is one of the reasons that I love Mark Anderson‘s scouting reports on pitchers. He uses much more specific velocity ranges, looking at about the minimum, maximum, and average velocities of each pitcher’s fastball. I have written quite a bit on the correlation between velocity and success, but I decided I wanted to take a broader look that included location. In this 3 part series, I will look at how the qualified starters in the Majors pitch when it comes to location (and their results and frequency broken down by fastball velocity), a similar look at Japanese Pitchers, and then a look at a MLB draft prospect using the findings in the first two posts.

First, I wanted to look at all the “qualified” starters in the Majors, and see where they, especially the successful ones, locate their pitches in the strike zone. I also wanted to see the effect of velocity on pitch location (that is, do the higher velocity pitchers usually throw it high, etc. Glenn DuPaul did at Beyond the Boxscore did an excellent job of looking at high fastballs and how they get more whiffs). So using FanGraphs leaderboards, I included the average fastball velocity for each qualified starter in 2012. For location, I used Brooks Baseball/Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Pitcher’s profiles, and inputted the data from each location in to the spreadsheet.

For each pitcher, I “normalized” the strike zone for each pitcher’s handedness (changing everything to a comparison by percentage to league average). I looked at each pitcher’s Frequency (denoted by the small f) and TAV (the maps themselves have this option) of the hitters at that location (denoted by the small t) for each part of the strike zone. I only looked at pitches in the strike zone and obviously this is all pitches, and not just fastballs. Jeff Zimmerman and others have done some really cool research on Edge %, showing that pitches thrown on the “edge” of the strike zone lead to a smaller BABIP. I hope this comparative look will provide more insight into this. So here is the spreadsheet of the results (directions are the direction from behind the plate, so Upper Right would be the zone closest to the left-handed hitter’s head).

Name
Velocity
fUpper Left
fUpper Middle
fUpper Right
fMiddle Left
fMiddle Middle
fMiddle Right
fLower Left
fLower Middle
fLower Right
tUpper Left
tUpper Middle
tUpper Right
tMiddle Left
tMiddle Middle
tMiddle Right
tLower Left
tLower Middle
tLower Right
Jordan Zimmerman 93.8 114.94 110.37 111.01 113.28 120.57 110.69 92.7 97.74 99.13 92 73 129 95 74 114 93 108 97
Bruce Chen 87.3 119.04 113.19 101.08 110.69 113.91 91.33 105.22 85.56 76.07 116 128 84 79 113 105 109 111 88
Clayton Kershaw 93 142.75 142.04 108.7 119.71 112.46 79.01 103.05 86.41 66.15 79 96 90 95 81 85 94 72 81
R.A. Dickey 83 106.57 115.47 100.41 120.26 111.24 103.57 98.89 106.08 102.54 88 98 82 92 91 105 103 88 102
Cliff Lee 91.7 114.48 117.22 113.79 108.59 109.76 110.91 100.01 103.46 96.82 85 90 79 84 93 88 107 103 103
James Mcdonald 91.8 135.07 123.43 103.67 103.56 109.19 86.64 92.65 96.31 82.62 106 98 89 108 105 77 92 103 95
Ricky Nolasco 90.1 96.92 110.68 98.9 101.73 108.57 113.15 94.31 104.28 108.43 109 96 97 96 99 113 116 129 116
Jon Niese 90.5 94.9 100.79 106.81 115.94 107.21 100.7 122.48 108.18 80.56 117 101 117 110 96 106 95 91 100
Phil Hughes 92 121.21 129.89 128.26 99.53 107.19 113.23 87.7 92.19 77.51 115 90 98 99 101 91 106 107 111
Matt Cain 91.1 118.88 117.08 125.99 104.69 106.43 100.09 89.45 87.06 80.46 78 84 111 91 91 90 90 92 108
Luke Hochevar 92.6 95.91 94.99 82.13 98.75 106.34 96.96 104.29 113.88 112.84 106 88 105 99 101 108 98 105 121
Ervin Santana 91.7 83.66 95.33 95.15 94.71 106.16 103.26 100.49 119.46 120.35 132 103 101 91 100 106 116 117 104
Justin Masterson 92.8 94.39 98.93 91.03 108.06 106.13 106.95 104.69 111.74 109.21 103 105 79 91 99 93 114 96 98
Anibal Sanchez 91.5 117.9 114.12 96.28 98.36 106.05 95.33 84.08 104.96 115.25 116 99 89 101 103 112 91 96 91
Wei-Yin Chen 91 120.15 116.99 98.93 91.71 105.45 92.22 97.91 95.89 97.03 107 103 123 89 134 90 91 74 73
Madison Bumgarner 90.8 93.65 111.72 105.84 118.2 105.24 96.97 109.48 98.17 85.95 69 96 131 87 106 93 91 107 98
Matt Moore 94.1 104.47 107.5 108.76 97.1 105.13 99.64 109.98 108.12 80.53 85 61 77 109 82 137 108 99 83
Josh Beckett 91.2 121.12 112.39 104.44 109.61 105.07 103.27 87.43 93.56 96.96 85 105 75 100 102 96 89 99 91
Cole Hamels 90.9 110.85 104.72 94.02 102.89 105 101.7 93.45 100.62 94.86 99 111 111 98 91 91 92 94 78
Edwin Jackson 93.4 110.09 109.31 85.5 111.03 105 79.13 113.72 115.37 91.53 115 109 102 115 95 107 104 107 85
Tim Lincecum 90.4 123.39 122.14 97.52 109.85 104.71 75.93 108.76 95.59 70.56 80 93 99 100 82 99 98 85 94
Chris Sale 91.3 86.62 103.3 102.62 91.89 104.4 113.5 99.56 119.31 98.64 104 94 89 103 85 84 99 104 65
Ivan Nova 92.8 119.13 123.12 94.29 97.74 103.62 97.68 94.59 99.11 98.66 108 103 116 95 113 140 108 99 94
Ubaldo Jimenez 92.5 113.82 117.55 101.55 99.71 103.6 94.51 96.93 103.37 95.62 76 101 94 89 105 105 94 85 107
Gavin Floyd 91.5 129.07 111.82 119.02 101.63 103.34 102.26 78.45 91.49 98.83 103 109 96 102 109 103 110 89 106
Lance Lynn 92.7 97.17 116.87 101.17 107.19 103.16 111.57 103.14 90.75 83.04 85 77 62 78 122 72 115 122 117
Max Scherzer 94.2 76 67.43 49.91 121.25 102.91 92.24 126.59 127.8 95.62 157 46 54 102 119 84 107 92 84
Matt Harrison 92.4 96.3 99.28 104.79 89.61 102.85 103.65 84.76 99.9 117.7 105 100 115 113 96 104 111 105 94
Clayton Richard 90.6 84.35 94.74 106.17 87.28 102.76 117.64 97.73 107.05 113.24 95 90 124 83 114 92 112 103 113
C.J. Wilson 91.6 89.51 87.78 95.53 88.27 102.58 109.25 106.66 117.01 105.91 93 93 90 92 83 100 94 97 72
Tim Hudson 89 81.9 71.3 68.24 100.56 102.19 87.84 112.92 112.67 119.69 80 98 92 105 94 92 85 85 85
Ryan Dempster 89.6 102.44 113 113.16 85.81 101.71 105.46 79.05 91.25 98.57 103 112 114 105 98 112 104 101 99
Trevor Cahill 89.7 90.56 81.95 77.79 100.48 101.53 98 117.58 116.62 105.5 93 61 90 118 110 77 102 97 71
Joe Blanton 90.2 91.9 94.32 106.24 101.49 101.27 105.69 107.98 90.68 102.05 100 130 120 107 109 117 102 103 84
Yu Darvish 92.6 110.69 87.95 61.76 97.56 100.88 85.05 105.9 126.5 93.47 94 56 81 89 83 79 94 113 91
Paul Maholm 87.8 83.79 86.12 85.33 93.79 100.84 103.12 103.97 114.93 114.91 102 107 96 106 105 91 114 102 98
Derek Holland 92.6 113.49 120.56 105.5 107.13 100.46 90.04 101.6 98.08 86.72 109 121 92 100 105 113 119 109 111
Bud Norris 91.9 99.58 83.82 87.37 87.45 100.12 96.14 99.75 110.45 119.68 121 100 114 102 103 113 110 101 108
Johnny Cueto 92.5 94.78 95.73 101.07 100.14 99.96 99.26 102.1 98.32 83.15 91 95 106 87 102 103 102 99 109
Homer Bailey 92.4 95.88 105.41 106.68 91.8 99.88 112.78 91.84 110.02 102.3 106 86 98 108 105 114 122 116 90
Jake Peavy 90.7 88.89 92.62 114.26 95.37 99.62 110.9 102.59 89.85 102.24 68 90 103 100 97 88 96 109 103
Adam Wainwright 89.9 77.35 102.3 108.95 86.21 99 118.34 98.59 87.87 128.23 82 90 103 118 102 97 87 96 97
Joe Saunders 89.4 80.38 84.07 93.38 82.46 98.98 109.88 89.65 104.36 123.64 98 110 94 115 106 92 100 101 107
Jeremy Guthrie 92.5 96.93 87.65 90.56 105.96 98.88 90.12 107.24 104.41 94.8 121 110 110 93 106 99 98 101 110
Jered Weaver 88 94.85 95.77 96.89 106.26 98.75 98.65 106.59 91.98 101.36 100 105 101 91 101 74 93 92 83
Ricky Romero 91.3 91.22 109.62 111 96.68 98.54 96.14 97.67 98.9 101.82 106 106 137 97 85 112 97 100 106
Wandy Rodriguez 89.4 86.61 89.63 105.01 90.82 98.19 102.56 98.49 105.75 112.13 93 89 99 92 101 92 96 112 116
Rick Porcello 92.3 109.69 89.05 88.58 116.03 98.18 89.1 113.77 93.51 83.16 100 96 80 115 104 97 101 92 91
Bronson Arroyo 86.3 101.78 99.37 104.63 96.84 98.07 110.34 96.27 90.97 99.43 113 110 91 110 115 89 108 113 103
James Shields 92 89.75 88.51 85.48 109.34 97.69 92.2 127.07 115.63 87.91 114 115 124 94 104 101 101 108 110
Mat Latos 92.7 98.45 115.3 130.33 79.51 97.66 115.81 76.23 92.79 106.99 81 102 102 113 91 106 86 90 65
David Price 95.5 99.39 96.22 103.79 99.22 96.87 115.56 85.62 96.56 102.43 84 101 90 90 94 90 97 93 85
Justin Verlander 94.7 94.04 112.92 119.87 93 96.78 103.79 101.3 88.49 84.59 87 112 86 92 73 95 74 82 90
Jeff Samardzija 95.1 114.33 117.64 96.44 93.51 96.4 85.76 104.05 111.64 95.12 87 55 106 104 103 99 89 89 99
Ian Kennedy 89.2 108 109.58 100.84 110.37 96.36 98.89 105.73 108.44 97.72 93 99 90 97 100 101 118 111 90
Jarrod Parker 92.4 118.24 96.28 76.18 104.4 96.27 71.41 110.07 104 104.35 124 107 32 73 113 66 82 98 69
Tommy Hanson 89.6 91.75 102.86 99.05 97.45 96.17 120.16 81.2 95.89 110.86 94 100 116 82 107 81 113 116 69
Felix Hernandez 92.4 118.02 89.89 65.94 119.75 96.1 76.41 122.19 111.63 95.85 92 102 121 90 93 109 81 98 87
Scott Diamond 89.3 84.75 82.85 78.58 99.38 95.84 104.35 97.16 113.25 135.93 144 144 94 95 81 78 139 108 108
Edinson Volquez 93.4 95.21 90.24 75.37 101.61 95.69 84.48 116.71 110.26 108.46 106 113 127 118 86 96 96 84 85
Chris Capuano 86.7 90.3 85.71 79.83 97.71 95.32 95.69 115.99 120.43 114.03 76 103 97 126 111 116 107 102 116
CC Sabathia 92.4 96.63 87.54 102.51 86.36 94.95 110.28 90.16 100.26 117.74 95 103 98 92 93 96 85 98 90
Gio Gonzalez 93.3 88.26 83.75 89.35 81.93 94.94 110.05 91.56 99.47 117.62 88 117 82 107 75 106 100 98 83
Aaron Harang 89.5 83.3 113.66 142.45 80.09 94.65 119.25 79.03 92.27 102.76 132 106 122 103 103 111 132 113 102
Lucas Harrell 92.2 77.08 77.05 86.95 94.14 94.44 100.37 124.28 98.93 93.9 106 52 75 123 93 79 105 87 92
Jason Vargas 87.8 86.49 70.49 86.94 105.19 94.35 106.77 93.24 99.67 129.99 90 137 98 116 109 109 82 92 89
Henderson Alvarez 92.8 98.36 68.23 60.85 122.43 94.08 82.34 133.9 130.2 111.24 100 155 173 88 123 95 107 97 83
Hiroki Kuroda 91.3 94.11 94.6 119.07 98.26 93.77 102.22 98.38 86.06 81.8 100 109 93 97 108 95 101 99 96
Clay Buchholz 92.2 103.34 93.53 106.17 98.1 93.69 102.37 103.19 90.97 95.74 82 112 94 93 121 98 80 97 86
Wade Miley 91.1 68.57 72.12 85.91 77.4 93.48 111.46 102.45 121.71 136.54 74 69 90 83 102 119 113 97 117
Dan Haren 88.5 84.71 88.2 96.32 90.63 92.45 111.17 90.81 105.15 114.47 112 88 115 104 110 99 95 101 113
Kyle Lohse 89.6 74.67 80.13 114.54 78.36 91.93 119.57 96.16 94.11 121.3 82 109 108 90 101 128 91 95 103
Josh Johnson 92.8 71.24 85 95.65 96.47 90.84 103.62 108.8 101.37 107.38 98 93 129 89 96 85 100 100 80
A.J. Burnett 92.3 71.24 85 95.65 96.47 90.84 103.62 108.8 101.37 107.38 98 93 129 89 96 85 100 100 80
Barry Zito 83.7 125.17 107.62 125.2 100.83 90.83 96.05 83.33 72.72 78.77 91 122 95 106 86 108 97 122 90
Mike Minor 90.3 95.25 78.27 95.41 94.45 89.48 110.57 82.67 89.32 107.9 108 115 73 108 90 102 129 134 86
Jeremy Hellickson 91.3 71.21 69.4 79.96 95.68 89.18 86.75 133.56 108.52 101.95 129 112 72 87 86 90 99 108 86
Zach Greinke 92.3 89.17 75.98 86.75 99.45 88.07 96.34 111.02 113.86 111.54 99 104 93 97 102 107 106 106 96
Jake Westbrook 90.4 61.91 58 68.56 97.98 88.05 86.51 137.49 126.46 114.2 114 178 135 98 98 124 102 95 109
Ryan Vogelsong 90.7 73.31 94.76 95.27 88.39 87.47 106.82 108.06 87.97 99.3 75 90 118 74 109 72 118 110 109
Mike Leake 89.5 52.3 76.57 101.41 85.42 86.84 118.92 98.97 109.58 120.84 77 94 68 84 113 109 106 146 101
Jon Lester 92 102.15 93.03 83.74 103.83 86.32 91.59 98.41 92.19 105.71 106 98 97 92 100 99 105 97 83
Yovani Gallardo 91.7 83.75 90.93 110.04 81.47 86.19 102.91 100.21 90.18 105.59 95 108 111 98 106 112 98 98 94
Tommy Milone 87.4 69.01 48.23 57.26 90.5 84.25 95.21 110.72 121.9 124.34 114 83 55 78 112 141 77 100 152
Mark Buehrle 84.9 122.28 89.48 93.82 95.55 78.25 100.91 76.05 75.35 105.45 117 120 96 118 110 104 97 106 95

The average velocity of the qualified pitchers was right at 91 MPH. Interestingly, the average Upper Left Frequency was 97.3 (%), Upper Middle Frequency was 97.06, and Upper Right Frequency was 97.07. Since this is normalized, it seems like qualified starters are a little less likely to throw the ball high in the strike zone compared to other pitchers. If we consider the survivor bias to be good (that is, pitchers that get to throw qualified amount of innings get to throw that many innings because they are good, not just because of their contracts, that may or may not still be comparative to their present value), then perhaps, like common wisdom states, putting the ball high in the zone is not a good thing.

Of course, this is why we looked at TAV as well. Upper Left TAV was 99.44 (everything is in percentage, with 100 being average) for the qualified pitchers, and Upper Middle TAV was 100.38, while Upper Right TAV was 99.21. So while the qualified pitchers may throw the ball up in the strike zone less, they aren’t anymore successful when they do so. What about pitches down the middle? Middle Left Frequency was 98.94 for the qualified pitchers, Middle Middle 99.05, and Middle Right 100.62. So the results there are negligible, but they did seem to throw the ball low more often, with a 101.5 frequency on the lower left portion, 102.31 on the lower middle, 102.15 on the lower right. So it seems clear that qualified pitchers do throw the ball down the middle about as much as relievers and non qualified starters, but they are more likely to throw the ball lower in the zone more than other pitchers, and less likely to throw the ball high in the zone.

Let’s break down the tendencies by velocity and see if we can see a pattern in approach (I find it a little funny that the two Cy Young winners were the qualified starter who threw the hardest, and the qualified starter who threw the softest).

93 MPH +: 103.95 fUpper Left, 103.74 fUpper Middle, 94.87 fUpper Right, 103.16 fMiddle Left,102.68 fMiddle Middle, 96.04 fMiddle Right, 104.53 Lower Left, 104.19 fLower Middle, 94.12 fLower Right.

I thought a lot of this could be explained by the top velocity pitchers being right-handed heavy, and they are just working arm side. However, 4 of the 10 are lefties, and the numbers are normalized by hand anyway.

How about them by TAV? Upper Left: 98, Upper Middle: 88.3, Upper Right: 94.3. Middle Left: 102.7, Middle Middle: 88.2, Middle Right: 101.3, Lower Left: 96.2, Lower Middle: 92.4, Lower Right: 87.2.

The best velocity pitchers were pretty good almost everywhere, but they were especially good when they located the ball in the upper middle part of the strike zone, and the lower right.

Let’s break each MPH group down, but more simply (just avoid the mess above)

92-92.8 MPH: Least Frequent: Upper Right (93.34 %). Most Frequent: Lower Left (104.51 %)

Best TAV: Lower Right (94.6%). Worst TAV: Middle Middle (102.68 %)

91-91.9 MPH: Most Frequent: Upper Right (103.05 %). Least Frequent: Middle Left (96.43 %)

Best TAV: Lower Right (94.69 %). Worst TAV: Upper Left (102.13 %)

90-90.9 MPH: Most Frequent: Lower Left (105.24 %). Least Frequent: Upper Left (92.3 %)

Best TAV: Upper Left (94). Worst TAV: Upper Right (111.64 %)

88-88.9 MPH: Most Frequent: Lower Right (113.79 %). Least Frequent: Upper Left (85.26 %).

Best TAV: Middle Right (95.93 %). Worst TAV: Lower Middle (105.29 %).

Sub-88 MPH: Most Frequent: Lower Right (105.06 %). Least Frequent: Upper Middle (90.63 %)

Best TAV: Upper Right (88.22 %). Worst TAV: Upper Middle (112 %)

A few observations, the harder a pitcher threw, the more likely they were to throw the ball high. There really wasn’t much order in which pitchers had the most success on pitches down the middle though (other than the elite velocity pitchers having a lot of success down the middle). Pitchers that threw softer were a little more likely to keep the ball out of the middle middle portion of the plate though.It also seemed that the softer a pitcher threw, the more extreme his TAV zones were. That is, they had extremely bad zones, along with extremely good ones, while the harder throwers were more balanced when it came to TAV zones.

I also wanted to look at pitchers that attacked one zone quite frequently. That is, did pitchers that favored one spot much more than average struggle in that spot because they were too predictable? So I looked at the 10 pitchers with the highest percentage in a location, and then looked at their normalized TAVs there.

Upper Left: 99.1

Upper Middle: 93.1

Upper Right: 101.4

Middle Left: 101.6

Middle Middle: 94.4

Middle Right: 98.9

Lower Left: 99.5

Lower Middle: 101.4

Lower Right: 106.3

Not extremely significant results there, the worst being pitchers who threw to the lower right of the strike zone, and the best being the ones that throw in the upper middle of the zone. I find it humorous just how successful the pitchers that threw the most pitches down the middle were, especially since the 10 pitchers that threw the least amount of pitches (by percentage, normalized by league average obviously) down the middle had a 102.6 Normalized TAV down the middle. It seems that pitchers who threw it down the middle, or high for that matter, are ones that know they can get away with it. Pitchers who throw it low seem to be sinkerballer types without great stuff for the most part, and this is why they struggled more (at least that is my working theory).

Tomorrow, we will look at data from the NBP in Japan and see if the results tell us anything different (or the same), and the next day we will look at a MLB draft prospect using these lenses.


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Velocity and Location Data Part 1: MLB Starters

Clint Hulsey

Grew up in Texas but always have been a fan of Griffey/A-Rod/Ichiro. 21 year old student interested in scouting, minor league and amateur baseball, and just baseball in general.

Favorite general sports moment: The Texas versus USC college football national championship comes to mind, as does Gary Matthews Jr. catch on July 1st 2006.

Favorite Seattle Sports Moment: King Felix throwing a perfect game against the Rays

Velocity and Location Data Part 1: MLB Starters

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