Olivo and Figgins will be starters. Why?

Chone Figgins, starting third baseman and leadoff hitter. Miguel Olivo, starting catcher and a part of the Mariners lineup for some reason. There are few things we have learned so far in spring training, but we have been gifted these two bits of ugly information. I call them ugly because, well, they are. Chone Figgins and Miguel Olivo are realistically the 24th and 25th best guys on the projected 25-man roster, so it is a bit upsetting that they’re two of the first guys to be guaranteed jobs. I mean really, Chone Figgins is probably worse than Kyle Seager and Carlos Guillen, and Olivo is behind Jesus Montero (who really should be getting most of the starts behind the dish) and John Jaso on the strictly-based-on-current-talent depth chart. Not to mention, both Figgins and Olivo are old guys and the 2012 Mariners are supposed to be all about youth. But there may be a method to this apparent madness, a method largely based around the fact that neither Figgins nor Olivo is expected to remain in Seattle much longer.

The Mariners can’t realistically be counting on either of these guys for much in terms of on-field productivity next season. Not if they believe what we all saw last year. Out of all major leaguers to amass 300 or more plate appearances in 2011, Figgins’ OBP ranked dead last at .241. Olivo, who led the M’s in RBI and dingers (offensive catalyst! extend this man!) was third worst at .253. The pair combined for -0.3 WAR over  820 plate appearances. If you’re wondering how the Mariners managed to lose 97 games last season, the answer is those two guys. Well, those two guys and Jack Cust. And Adam Kennedy, and Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro, and Anthony Vasquez. Anthony Vasquez. Let’s not talk about last season anymore.

But back to the point – Olivo’s contract is up after this season and one’s gotta assume that Figgins will be leaving town the moment a team finds him attractive enough to pick up ten percent of his remaining contract. If it had happened this winter he’d likely be gone by now, but it didn’t because Figgins is coming off a terrible, terrible season in which nothing went right. Neither of these guys is a part of the long term plan, and both will be off the books and off the team by the end of 2013 at the absolute latest. The Mariners, I suspect, aren’t thinking about extracting value from this pair through their on-field play. The best way to get value out of Figgins and/or Olivo is by boosting their value and creating tradable assets.

An increase in value depends on performance and playing time. If Figgins is hitting .300 but only playing once a week nobody will notice or care, and he’s still an immovable albatross. Miguel Olivo has trade value by being a dependable, durable catcher, but if he’s pushed into a backup role to begin the season then potentially interested trade parties are going to walk away faster than a crowd from an M. Night Shyamalan movie. The only way to create an attractive starting catcher and third baseman are by giving them the opportunity. And really, this is (hopefully) the last season the Mariners get to make decisions like this without torching the team’s playoff chances. The Mariners are almost certainly not a playoff team this year, so it won’t hurt them to give opportunities to two players who haven’t earned them.

Let’s say Figgins starts the season leading off and playing third base every day. If his OPS is still .484 or anything remotely similar, they cut him and eat all of his salary. It’s a sunk cost anyway by that point, and there is literally no reason to keep him on the roster if he’s awful. The money’s already been spent. But if he succeeds! I don’t want to get into how he could succeed. It certainly seems like a long shot. His rate statistics are all trending in the wrong direction, he was one of the worst major leaguers last season, he’s old, he’s bad, he’s really bad… I don’t know. Maybe he has a bounce back in him, maybe not. But the beauty of playing him every day right out the gate is that he only has to keep it up for a couple months. The goal here isn’t to use Chone Figgins for all 162 games, it’s to pretty him up in hopes that the Braves or someone ask him out. If he’s hitting decently enough and not stinking it up in the field then maybe some team will be willing to give the Mariners $4 million dollars and a C- prospect, which frankly seems amazing given where we are today. Chone Figgins is useless today, he was worse-than-useless yesterday, yet tomorrow he could be salary relief and a marginal minor leaguer. I can’t believe he was worth almost 7 wins in 2009.

Miguel Olivo is an easier call for the front office to make since, to some, he still looks like a starting catcher. He posted career highs in plate appearances and total games, and led the worst offensive team in baseball in a few mostly-meaningless categories. But some people love his leadership, his relationship with the pitching staff, whatever you want to cherry pick. People still like him, and Jaso had a bad year last year, and Montero is going to be eased in with the DH slot. Olivo can hit however he wants over April and May and will still be attractive to the first team whose starting catcher is shattered trying to block the plate. A starting catcher doesn’t have to be a good hitter, and if Olivo happens to flukily look like one over the first months of the season then he can be unexpectedly turned into a prospect or two. If he sucks he can be dumped for cheap, and by then Montero will have had enough spot starts and DH time to start taking on a heavier workload behind the plate. It’s a low risk situation that capitalizes on the current roster to turn a redundant player into the potential reward of shiny new prospects.

It may seem fishy to guarantee roster spots to Figgins and Olivo this early in the spring, but it’s probably the best way to get a return on either investment at this point. And the fun part is, who knows, maybe Figgins turns in a campaign so strong that they hang onto him all season and make him a key part of a contending 2013 team. It’s worth pointing out that Kyle Seager will get his chances, no matter what happens with Figgins. He has half a season total above AA and has years and years left to prove himself in Seattle. Olivo isn’t really blocking Jaso since Jaso profiles as a part-timer at this point, and Montero definitely isn’t ready to catch most days yet so he’s not blocked either. The early part of 2012 is the team’s best opportunity to see what’s left in Chone Figgins and Miguel Olivo. Let’s just hope there’s something left to see.

Miguel Olivo does not like to walk