Brett Lawrie, Michael Pineda, or Jesus Montero?

The other day, a story broke that the Mariners tried to trade pitcher Michael Pineda for the Blue Jays’ shortstop prospect Brett Lawrie. Of course, they eventually traded Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. Now we don’t know why the Pineda-Lawrie trade didn’t go through, it could have been the Blue Jays saying no or the Mariners may have said no. However, it got me thinking. Which of the 3 young players is the best?

Lawrie debuted in the Majors in 2011 with the Toronto Blue Jays, earning a 2.8 WAR in just 43 games. His neutralized OBP (that is with BABIP set at .300 instead of the .318 Lawrie had) was .351, and he had an OPS + of 152 (100 is average). He walked above average at 9.4 %, homered an amazing 5.3% of the time, and had an awesome ISO of .287. Of course, this was in under 200 big league plate appearances. He spent the first 69 games of the season in Toronto’s PCL AAA affiliate. There he had a stunning .415 OBP and OPS of 1.076. This projects to a .339 OBP and .906 OPS. This is about .712 Runs Created per Game, or 35 runs more than an average player a season. Even if you acknowledge his extremely high AAA BABIP, Lawrie still looks like a dominant player. Throw in the 9 runs he saved the Blue Jays with his defense and you have a very good player.

I have made it known on this site that I am not a huge fan of Montero. I have him projected as just a .305 OBP and .761 OPS player, or about .51 Runs Created per game (7 runs created more than an average player in a 140 game span, but 28 runs less than Lawrie). He is about an average walker, with pretty good power, but is an absolutely awful fielding catcher. It may be anecdotal, but the Yankees in 2011 once subbed in Jorge Posada at catcher when their catcher got hurt rather than use Montero, and Posada hadn’t caught all year.

Pineda was pretty good last year in his rookie season with the Mariners. His FIP was 3.42, with a WHIP of 1.099, striking out over a batter an inning. Much is made of his second half regression, and there was one if you look at his ERA. However, his strikeout rate improved, and it was mainly his Left On Base % that dropped, while his FIPs remained rather steady. Any pitcher who throws 95 MPH and can do it for 6 or 7 innings every 5 days is a pitcher I want on my team. Even if his BABIP corrects (it sat at .258 in 2011), he still is going to be a good pitcher, even in the hitter park that is Yankee Stadium. The only thing that concerns me is a borderline home run rate (.95 HR/9IP) and that he gives up more flyballs than groundballs.

It seems that Brett Lawrie is the best one of the bunch. So if the theoretical trade of Lawrie for Pineda was made, it would have been good for the Mariners. I have Pineda as the second best player on the list, with Montero third. Again, many scouts like Montero’s bat, and believe it will develop and become a middle of the lineup force. I have been wrong before, but I really do think the Mariners will regret not being able to get Lawrie and settling for Montero instead (if those reports are true, it could be a made up story).